* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 10/21/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 43 41 40 40 39 40 41 36 28 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 43 41 40 40 39 40 41 36 28 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 45 47 48 51 54 56 56 55 52 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 28 29 28 30 27 30 32 37 40 46 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -7 -6 -4 -3 -3 0 4 1 0 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 354 340 335 339 345 327 307 294 306 326 354 353 19 SST (C) 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 22.9 22.9 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.3 25.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 93 92 92 91 89 88 90 95 98 102 107 113 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 81 80 78 77 75 76 81 84 88 93 100 107 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.2 -55.9 -56.7 -57.2 -58.3 -59.3 -58.9 -58.5 -57.6 -56.9 -55.9 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 50 49 49 50 50 51 44 39 31 22 17 17 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 22 21 20 17 15 14 13 15 18 14 10 850 MB ENV VOR 181 162 148 132 126 110 103 91 87 48 6 11 4 200 MB DIV -22 -28 -18 0 -31 -30 -18 -25 -29 -58 -46 -40 -61 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 0 0 -3 -5 -1 -13 -5 -6 -1 LAND (KM) 1545 1655 1764 1838 1912 2008 2041 2025 2016 2020 1956 1806 1571 LAT (DEG N) 34.7 35.0 35.3 35.6 35.8 35.9 35.6 34.7 33.5 32.2 30.7 28.9 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 27.2 28.4 29.5 30.3 31.0 32.1 32.7 33.0 33.5 34.2 34.2 33.2 31.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 5 3 3 6 6 7 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. -7. -11. -15. -19. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 29. 29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -12. -14. -12. -9. -12. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. -4. -12. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 10/21/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 10/21/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)