* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 10/19/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 50 52 55 56 56 52 47 45 42 42 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 50 52 55 56 56 52 47 45 42 42 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 45 48 50 55 59 62 61 58 57 57 59 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 17 9 12 15 20 17 25 28 30 26 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -3 -1 -2 -3 -7 -9 -8 -4 -1 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 184 183 82 40 10 2 350 347 350 340 318 297 264 SST (C) 23.8 23.5 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.5 23.7 23.7 23.6 23.7 23.8 23.7 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 94 94 92 93 93 94 95 94 92 92 95 96 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 82 80 81 82 82 82 80 77 77 81 84 84 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.6 -55.2 -55.7 -57.0 -58.3 -58.7 -58.8 -58.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 54 51 52 50 49 53 55 55 54 56 50 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 27 27 26 25 22 20 18 14 13 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 166 180 197 210 199 205 184 150 128 100 104 93 79 200 MB DIV 21 1 -13 -2 -14 -28 -15 3 0 -11 -3 4 -18 700-850 TADV -1 3 9 2 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 844 935 1027 1122 1220 1382 1542 1700 1811 1828 1733 1531 1299 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 33.2 33.9 34.1 34.2 33.9 34.1 34.8 35.4 35.4 34.8 33.9 33.9 LONG(DEG W) 20.0 20.6 21.2 22.3 23.5 25.7 27.5 29.0 30.0 30.2 29.4 27.5 24.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 9 8 10 10 8 7 6 3 2 7 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -13. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 15. 16. 16. 12. 7. 5. 2. 2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 10/19/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 10/19/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)