* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 09/12/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 39 43 41 43 40 41 40 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 33 39 41 46 43 45 36 31 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 29 30 32 35 37 39 42 37 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 18 21 21 22 21 17 15 20 30 35 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 -2 -5 -3 -4 -2 -3 1 0 0 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 12 29 25 26 21 20 17 346 321 288 303 279 278 SST (C) 29.9 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 166 170 170 170 170 171 170 166 159 157 152 153 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 152 157 159 157 156 151 147 137 132 126 128 132 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 10 6 9 5 8 6 10 6 700-500 MB RH 56 58 62 64 64 66 62 61 64 66 70 67 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 7 5 6 4 4 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -93 -75 -62 -64 -65 -36 -69 -57 -99 -78 -77 -68 -58 200 MB DIV 6 15 25 20 21 0 -10 -11 -12 15 1 14 -3 700-850 TADV -1 0 -3 -6 -2 -4 -5 -1 -2 6 5 2 3 LAND (KM) -37 -67 9 75 145 314 309 233 186 77 -22 -80 -22 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.6 27.0 27.8 29.0 29.9 30.5 30.6 LONG(DEG W) 80.5 81.3 82.1 83.0 83.8 85.6 87.9 90.1 92.0 92.8 92.7 91.7 90.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 8 6 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 76 64 11 56 34 46 150 66 42 42 32 27 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 14. 18. 16. 18. 15. 16. 15. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 09/12/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922014 INVEST 09/12/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 09/12/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED