* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 09/11/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 37 43 47 49 47 47 46 47 46 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 29 28 31 35 37 35 35 34 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 27 27 32 35 37 38 39 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 16 22 22 25 23 24 19 27 18 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 2 0 -4 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 28 32 14 20 32 24 21 18 350 330 301 302 275 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 162 162 166 170 170 170 169 164 160 158 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 138 139 143 155 154 150 146 140 135 131 124 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 8 8 7 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 51 51 51 54 56 62 63 67 63 63 64 69 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 4 3 3 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -97 -88 -91 -88 -63 -53 -41 -43 -51 -88 -96 -106 -70 200 MB DIV -7 -6 6 -8 4 13 -7 5 -23 7 3 27 -3 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 0 0 -5 -2 -6 -2 -6 1 4 2 LAND (KM) 173 115 57 -8 -75 4 148 251 205 88 17 -53 -82 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.3 29.1 29.9 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 78.4 79.0 79.6 80.3 81.0 82.6 84.2 86.0 87.7 89.3 90.4 91.0 90.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 49 51 49 11 67 30 30 39 101 51 10 34 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 18. 22. 24. 22. 22. 21. 22. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 09/11/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922014 INVEST 09/11/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 09/11/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)