* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 09/10/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 29 35 41 42 44 46 49 52 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 29 35 29 31 33 35 39 41 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 26 26 29 31 33 35 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 16 18 15 16 21 28 24 22 17 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 1 -2 2 -2 -6 -3 -3 -5 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 359 296 355 17 28 346 22 5 7 6 343 324 265 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.2 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 158 159 160 162 164 170 170 169 169 168 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 133 135 135 140 141 147 153 150 146 140 135 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 10 8 9 7 9 700-500 MB RH 58 56 51 51 51 50 56 61 65 66 62 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -79 -83 -102 -104 -84 -80 -48 -27 -9 -16 -28 -72 -67 200 MB DIV -25 -36 -1 1 -2 -7 13 11 -4 2 -24 8 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -7 0 -7 -3 -6 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 448 401 356 311 268 138 0 -74 19 118 180 145 131 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.5 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 75.6 76.1 76.5 77.0 77.4 78.7 80.1 81.5 82.8 84.0 85.1 86.0 86.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 55 53 49 46 43 48 34 58 29 32 29 33 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 6. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 21. 22. 24. 26. 29. 32. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 09/10/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922014 INVEST 09/10/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 09/10/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED