* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL922013 09/09/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 38 41 41 43 43 48 50 47 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 34 38 41 41 43 43 48 50 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 32 36 41 47 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 22 21 24 24 27 24 25 22 19 15 28 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 1 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 251 240 223 219 208 204 212 225 234 238 241 196 196 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 25.1 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 154 153 147 141 133 131 131 133 111 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 135 133 131 124 118 110 108 110 115 99 74 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -55.4 -55.0 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 7 4 0 700-500 MB RH 66 65 62 56 56 48 46 43 44 42 49 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 7 6 5 5 3 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -5 -6 -26 -24 -51 -61 -92 -73 -24 61 92 106 200 MB DIV 64 77 43 13 27 1 8 -17 1 30 42 63 74 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 5 4 3 2 0 4 7 16 -8 -18 LAND (KM) 728 816 905 989 1074 963 831 735 695 731 658 430 121 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.7 27.4 28.2 29.0 30.5 31.9 33.0 34.1 35.4 37.2 40.5 45.5 LONG(DEG W) 67.6 67.3 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.4 68.0 68.5 68.5 67.6 65.4 62.2 58.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 10 17 24 28 HEAT CONTENT 46 47 40 32 30 24 12 15 22 24 36 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 0. -3. -6. -7. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -9. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 16. 16. 18. 18. 23. 25. 22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/09/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/09/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/09/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)