* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL922013 09/09/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 41 44 46 49 51 56 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 41 44 46 49 51 56 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 32 35 39 45 53 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 14 18 20 20 19 14 14 11 12 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 2 3 0 3 -1 0 -2 0 -4 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 255 251 235 219 220 210 216 213 226 230 254 222 248 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 157 157 158 150 145 140 137 137 137 135 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 138 137 136 136 127 120 114 110 111 113 113 109 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -55.0 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 8 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 61 56 51 45 46 43 46 48 52 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 9 7 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -21 -4 1 -24 -34 -74 -82 -85 -66 -28 -4 10 200 MB DIV 59 64 65 41 12 15 0 3 -5 9 17 48 24 700-850 TADV 5 3 0 -1 4 3 3 1 0 1 5 2 8 LAND (KM) 669 750 833 914 996 1131 1048 992 964 986 1056 1118 1058 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 26.0 26.6 27.3 28.0 29.6 30.8 31.7 32.1 32.4 32.6 33.2 34.5 LONG(DEG W) 67.8 67.3 66.7 66.5 66.2 66.0 66.1 66.2 66.3 65.9 65.0 63.6 61.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 7 7 8 7 6 3 2 3 5 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 41 46 46 38 30 26 15 14 15 17 18 21 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 16. 19. 21. 24. 26. 31. 36. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/09/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/09/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/09/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)