* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL922013 09/08/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 36 39 38 38 37 39 43 46 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 36 39 38 38 37 39 43 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 27 27 28 30 34 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 24 27 27 33 34 31 25 19 21 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 2 0 1 -3 0 0 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 251 240 240 237 220 222 209 214 215 217 219 229 225 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 158 158 157 153 150 147 140 134 133 135 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 138 138 137 134 128 126 122 116 111 111 117 106 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -55.3 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 7 5 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 62 60 52 48 43 43 42 46 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -7 -5 -7 -3 -19 -34 -74 -67 -74 -52 -16 38 200 MB DIV 51 54 47 55 54 38 16 -1 16 3 23 30 50 700-850 TADV 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 2 6 -5 0 LAND (KM) 636 718 801 890 978 1069 945 816 666 523 480 584 533 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 26.0 26.6 27.4 28.1 29.2 30.2 31.1 32.1 33.2 34.8 36.6 38.8 LONG(DEG W) 68.6 68.1 67.6 67.3 67.0 67.2 67.9 68.8 69.9 70.9 70.7 68.3 64.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 7 5 6 6 7 7 10 16 20 HEAT CONTENT 45 45 48 43 32 30 26 15 15 12 17 19 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 777 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -3. -8. -12. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 14. 13. 12. 14. 18. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/08/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/08/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/08/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)