* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL922013 09/08/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 41 40 39 37 38 41 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 41 40 39 37 38 41 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 29 29 29 29 30 33 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 22 24 26 29 36 35 30 25 19 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 0 0 5 0 0 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 265 247 236 242 235 217 212 209 211 229 256 261 271 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 158 160 158 152 145 141 136 132 129 127 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 139 139 140 137 129 122 117 111 108 106 107 102 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 61 61 58 53 44 41 40 42 43 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -21 -14 -11 -10 -7 -18 -51 -71 -103 -92 -70 -42 200 MB DIV 38 45 53 54 50 40 25 -1 5 -22 1 21 38 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 3 1 0 4 1 2 1 6 8 16 LAND (KM) 606 689 773 868 964 1148 1101 1034 953 911 848 824 767 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.7 26.3 27.1 27.8 29.3 30.6 31.9 33.0 34.0 35.1 36.2 37.5 LONG(DEG W) 68.5 68.0 67.5 67.0 66.5 65.7 65.6 65.6 66.0 66.1 65.5 63.8 61.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 5 6 7 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 46 45 49 46 35 30 18 14 18 24 16 23 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -3. -8. -12. -14. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 16. 15. 14. 12. 13. 16. 18. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/08/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/08/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/08/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)