* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922013 08/17/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 48 51 53 53 53 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 48 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 36 40 30 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 5 4 10 7 15 15 21 18 24 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -2 0 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 352 220 262 294 228 243 237 245 219 240 225 257 255 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 157 159 159 158 155 150 149 151 152 154 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 139 141 141 139 137 135 133 134 134 134 135 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 11 9 11 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 56 54 53 52 51 48 49 50 51 54 54 55 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 8 -1 -6 12 -12 -3 -14 -9 -28 -41 -33 -41 200 MB DIV 44 36 28 17 33 31 20 2 22 1 21 4 9 700-850 TADV 1 4 0 -1 3 0 3 0 5 0 3 -2 0 LAND (KM) 254 290 314 290 258 190 106 13 -143 -284 -425 -489 -492 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.5 21.7 22.0 22.3 22.7 23.4 24.2 25.3 26.4 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 93.2 93.6 93.9 94.3 94.7 95.4 96.5 97.7 99.2 100.6 101.9 103.0 104.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 7 7 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 27 29 31 32 36 42 26 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 28. 28. 27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922013 INVEST 08/17/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922013 INVEST 08/17/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922013 INVEST 08/17/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED