* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922013 08/17/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 30 34 37 42 43 45 46 48 49 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 30 34 37 42 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 38 32 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 9 9 9 14 11 17 13 18 11 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 0 0 -4 -1 -3 -3 -1 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 279 291 313 286 231 244 233 244 228 244 236 254 238 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 157 158 160 160 156 151 150 154 158 161 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 140 141 142 142 142 138 134 134 137 142 144 145 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 11 13 9 13 9 13 8 13 9 12 700-500 MB RH 64 62 58 54 54 51 51 49 51 52 54 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 9 8 7 5 5 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -8 -7 13 12 -6 -6 -11 3 -7 -11 -2 -7 200 MB DIV 35 28 23 44 36 14 30 7 -1 7 -10 0 -1 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 5 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 142 211 280 341 320 223 136 58 -75 -232 -398 -294 -230 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.2 21.3 21.6 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.5 22.7 23.0 23.5 24.1 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 91.7 92.4 93.0 93.6 94.1 95.1 96.2 97.3 98.6 100.1 101.7 103.4 104.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 26 29 31 33 35 41 39 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 5. 9. 12. 17. 18. 20. 21. 23. 24. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922013 INVEST 08/17/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922013 INVEST 08/17/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922013 INVEST 08/17/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)