* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922013 08/16/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 32 36 43 47 50 49 49 51 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 32 36 43 47 50 49 36 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 40 44 48 37 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 5 7 8 3 12 14 17 16 16 17 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -5 -4 -5 -4 -7 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 354 282 298 322 281 213 207 214 185 193 167 203 173 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.7 28.0 27.8 28.7 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 156 160 160 162 160 156 145 135 133 146 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 138 141 140 142 139 135 125 117 115 126 133 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 9 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 65 62 56 53 48 45 41 42 40 41 39 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 9 9 10 9 10 8 8 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 13 0 -9 28 17 20 0 17 -4 2 -22 -34 200 MB DIV 47 37 31 18 55 29 30 23 19 -6 17 -19 -1 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -3 2 2 5 6 2 1 4 -2 2 LAND (KM) 136 192 249 299 351 418 325 230 131 43 -94 -254 -447 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.5 22.8 23.6 24.5 25.2 26.0 26.7 27.5 28.3 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 91.5 92.0 92.4 92.8 93.1 93.7 94.3 95.0 95.9 96.9 98.3 99.8 101.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 31 36 37 38 41 44 42 32 17 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -1. -3. -3. -7. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 18. 22. 25. 24. 24. 26. 26. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922013 INVEST 08/16/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922013 INVEST 08/16/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922013 INVEST 08/16/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED