* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922013 06/07/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 30 29 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 30 29 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 30 29 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 36 37 35 40 43 36 39 41 36 41 43 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 2 -1 2 2 0 0 -1 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 263 266 270 269 267 270 267 273 268 265 245 242 234 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 123 123 123 125 127 130 131 131 131 129 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 118 118 118 119 120 123 124 124 123 122 118 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -55.1 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 11 700-500 MB RH 53 51 49 52 52 54 52 52 47 49 51 53 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -13 -12 -13 -14 -22 -25 -24 -16 -19 -21 -40 -46 200 MB DIV -1 -4 2 32 24 8 18 -25 0 -2 32 19 11 700-850 TADV 6 9 10 9 7 11 4 7 5 4 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 1139 1138 1138 1144 1122 960 845 747 525 293 43 73 88 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.4 17.5 17.7 18.2 19.1 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 48.1 49.1 50.1 51.1 52.1 54.4 56.6 58.7 60.8 63.0 65.3 67.5 69.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 15 8 5 5 4 19 20 23 13 9 9 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -14. -22. -29. -36. -39. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -2. -7. -12. -19. -24. -29. -31. -32. -32. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922013 INVEST 06/07/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.4/ -0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922013 INVEST 06/07/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED