* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 09/17/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 17 21 25 30 41 55 66 74 80 84 88 90 V (KT) LAND 15 17 21 25 30 41 55 66 74 80 84 88 90 V (KT) LGE mod 15 16 17 19 21 27 34 43 53 63 72 77 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 5 8 8 7 9 13 14 19 22 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 -7 -5 -3 -7 -2 -5 -1 -7 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 54 68 357 342 334 295 295 265 260 256 275 268 272 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 163 163 161 157 157 157 161 166 166 164 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 159 160 161 158 154 153 152 155 160 157 153 150 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 55 51 49 51 50 51 50 53 54 59 62 65 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 2 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -3 -5 0 6 3 5 16 18 18 12 0 -7 200 MB DIV 15 17 16 3 21 17 37 7 0 18 17 11 12 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -5 -5 1 0 2 0 3 0 3 -1 LAND (KM) 477 487 376 271 200 164 88 48 90 15 205 266 177 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.7 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.7 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 61.1 62.3 63.4 64.6 65.8 68.2 70.6 73.0 75.4 77.7 80.0 82.0 83.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 84 88 82 87 93 74 86 118 90 76 126 132 147 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -3. 2. 10. 19. 25. 32. 37. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 26. 40. 51. 59. 65. 69. 73. 75. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 09/17/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 09/17/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)