* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 09/16/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 24 27 37 48 60 67 74 79 84 88 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 24 27 37 48 60 67 74 79 77 81 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 34 43 54 65 74 74 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 15 14 15 14 8 11 9 13 14 16 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 -1 -2 -2 -6 -5 -5 -6 -3 -9 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 61 66 61 53 53 13 19 306 303 269 275 272 264 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.7 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 153 155 158 159 156 153 151 151 156 165 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 151 153 157 159 158 154 150 148 145 150 159 161 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 55 56 50 51 53 55 54 55 57 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -11 -18 -19 -11 -7 3 4 4 18 17 18 -9 200 MB DIV 10 0 10 6 15 7 9 -1 13 24 17 33 49 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -4 1 0 4 0 2 3 LAND (KM) 630 527 445 399 411 398 276 233 113 89 31 45 196 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 13 12 12 12 13 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 55 60 69 76 98 85 92 60 73 97 82 124 121 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 10. 19. 24. 30. 34. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 17. 28. 40. 47. 54. 59. 64. 68. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 09/16/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 09/16/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)