* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 09/16/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 41 51 62 68 74 80 84 87 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 41 51 62 68 74 80 84 87 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 34 41 52 64 75 84 90 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 14 11 14 10 12 9 17 15 15 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 2 -1 -1 -1 -4 -5 -6 -7 -4 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 68 61 69 59 46 55 8 351 313 307 286 268 279 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 150 152 157 159 156 153 150 150 154 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 146 148 150 155 158 154 151 148 146 149 152 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 55 56 55 54 53 54 51 51 52 53 59 58 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -14 -17 -23 -26 -13 -9 4 10 11 24 24 30 200 MB DIV 7 8 -2 -3 -7 2 -1 11 -2 10 16 5 16 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 -1 -2 3 -2 3 LAND (KM) 718 630 554 487 445 445 392 282 267 167 161 80 114 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 54.9 56.0 57.0 58.1 59.2 61.3 63.8 66.3 68.9 71.5 74.2 76.7 79.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 54 59 66 74 81 85 79 89 53 67 88 70 117 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 16. 26. 37. 44. 49. 55. 59. 62. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 09/16/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 09/16/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)