* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 09/15/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 48 59 69 78 84 89 93 96 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 48 59 69 78 84 89 79 89 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 46 59 75 91 101 92 101 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 18 15 16 10 10 9 13 13 16 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -2 0 -5 -5 -5 -4 -4 -4 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 64 75 89 80 74 79 40 337 344 321 329 284 287 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 149 152 155 157 156 153 153 156 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 148 147 145 148 151 154 152 149 148 151 156 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 54 55 54 54 54 51 53 47 48 48 47 48 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 0 -10 -13 -9 -21 -15 -17 -5 -9 2 -2 -5 200 MB DIV 18 28 19 10 16 -2 -4 -4 11 3 13 22 30 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 1 -1 1 0 2 0 4 1 5 3 LAND (KM) 818 786 678 606 552 501 529 314 166 122 10 -11 78 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.7 18.3 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 53.0 54.3 55.5 56.6 57.6 59.6 61.6 63.8 66.2 68.6 71.2 73.7 76.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 40 37 48 68 83 84 91 87 107 69 81 18 112 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 23. 34. 44. 53. 59. 64. 68. 71. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 09/15/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 09/15/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)