* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 08/09/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 42 48 50 54 55 58 61 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 42 48 50 54 55 58 61 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 40 43 45 46 49 52 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 1 4 7 6 12 14 23 19 19 17 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 2 0 1 0 2 -1 -3 -2 -2 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 9 325 333 323 320 254 247 255 265 261 274 249 280 SST (C) 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.3 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 125 128 131 134 137 141 144 147 148 149 143 145 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 128 134 138 141 146 149 153 153 151 143 145 144 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 50 49 52 50 50 51 52 53 53 52 55 58 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 12 12 11 9 21 25 16 23 30 43 55 44 200 MB DIV -10 0 13 12 30 23 28 16 18 12 14 13 40 700-850 TADV -9 -11 -7 -7 -11 -5 -7 -3 -5 2 0 3 -1 LAND (KM) 1414 1290 1165 1053 965 851 522 366 381 323 222 266 204 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 18 18 18 18 19 18 16 15 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 33 32 30 38 53 50 38 53 71 39 110 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 25. 29. 30. 33. 36. 39. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 08/09/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 08/09/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)