* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 08/09/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 40 43 42 42 43 45 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 40 43 42 42 43 45 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 31 33 35 35 35 34 35 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 3 5 6 9 18 22 30 26 22 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 6 4 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 100 153 199 248 265 266 245 249 254 269 268 302 289 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 124 125 128 132 136 140 143 147 149 147 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 122 124 125 128 132 137 139 142 146 148 146 145 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 13 12 700-500 MB RH 52 49 49 48 51 50 52 50 51 57 58 55 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -1 0 7 5 -2 6 4 -2 -4 -11 -8 -3 200 MB DIV -5 -11 -12 -1 8 17 27 21 22 15 -2 0 -14 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -9 -10 -6 -11 -4 -6 4 1 2 5 6 LAND (KM) 1757 1617 1486 1376 1264 1108 993 756 598 508 240 150 88 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 16 16 15 16 15 15 14 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 4 8 9 10 12 25 23 41 45 57 58 49 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 3. -1. -3. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 15. 18. 17. 17. 18. 20. 22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 08/09/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 08/09/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)