* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 08/09/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 36 39 40 39 36 34 34 35 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 36 39 40 39 36 34 34 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 33 32 30 27 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 3 4 5 8 16 28 28 29 29 29 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 13 10 7 6 6 2 3 6 6 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 102 164 280 228 260 260 226 232 230 244 250 270 263 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 121 121 121 123 128 132 135 137 139 140 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 119 117 117 117 119 123 126 127 128 128 129 129 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 53 51 47 47 48 49 46 46 45 47 46 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 11 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 16 3 -2 -2 7 3 0 -1 -6 -39 -38 -28 -33 200 MB DIV -7 -8 -16 -15 6 30 22 26 6 -11 -1 2 -3 700-850 TADV -15 -14 -11 -7 -4 -13 -4 -3 0 2 -3 -5 0 LAND (KM) 1806 1721 1644 1576 1510 1383 1298 1228 1106 1038 960 799 667 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.5 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 38.6 39.9 41.2 42.5 43.8 46.4 49.0 51.5 53.4 55.1 56.6 58.2 59.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 12 10 13 20 21 25 33 37 44 47 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 7. 3. -1. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 14. 15. 14. 11. 9. 9. 10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 08/09/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 08/09/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)