* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 08/08/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 33 39 44 46 46 45 44 41 42 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 33 39 44 46 46 45 44 41 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 39 40 40 37 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 0 1 1 5 5 19 23 24 22 24 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 11 11 9 6 3 1 4 7 8 5 4 SHEAR DIR 65 125 34 307 217 304 242 245 236 234 230 254 270 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 122 122 120 121 123 126 129 132 136 138 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 119 118 118 116 116 118 121 122 125 128 129 130 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 55 54 52 50 48 50 48 47 44 43 42 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 9 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 10 7 -4 -6 -2 13 0 -1 -11 -23 -51 -45 -56 200 MB DIV -11 -8 -10 -24 -9 7 29 32 24 21 15 4 18 700-850 TADV -14 -15 -12 -8 -5 -6 -4 0 -1 1 5 9 4 LAND (KM) 1946 1907 1828 1744 1667 1514 1377 1276 1238 1136 1036 973 834 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 36.2 37.4 38.6 39.9 41.1 43.5 46.0 48.4 50.5 52.4 54.2 56.0 57.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 10 11 14 11 16 13 19 30 31 39 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 12. 10. 7. 5. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 14. 19. 21. 21. 20. 19. 16. 17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 08/08/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 08/08/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)