* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 08/07/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 47 52 60 66 72 75 77 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 47 52 60 66 72 75 77 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 51 59 68 78 87 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 8 10 13 6 5 3 2 0 3 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 3 0 6 7 4 3 2 2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 70 79 68 55 80 101 125 309 336 169 178 247 303 SST (C) 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.0 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 130 127 127 126 127 125 127 132 135 137 141 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 130 126 125 123 124 123 124 129 133 134 138 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 54 54 51 45 45 41 40 38 39 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 46 38 25 17 10 9 9 23 19 22 17 15 13 200 MB DIV -20 -24 -30 -30 -22 -33 -44 -20 1 0 -8 -7 -15 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -11 -15 -10 -8 -6 -7 -6 -5 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1529 1650 1774 1851 1848 1732 1509 1292 1106 945 843 783 768 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.3 13.0 12.5 12.1 11.8 11.8 12.0 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 31.3 32.6 33.8 35.0 36.2 38.5 40.9 43.2 45.4 47.4 49.1 50.8 52.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 12 11 12 11 10 9 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 8 11 20 20 32 25 34 29 23 30 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 27. 35. 41. 47. 50. 52. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 08/07/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -25.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 08/07/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)