* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 08/07/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 37 40 44 49 55 61 67 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 37 40 44 49 55 61 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 36 40 44 49 55 64 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 11 10 10 13 9 10 5 6 8 8 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 4 3 5 0 5 6 3 4 2 5 6 SHEAR DIR 88 85 114 108 111 130 150 180 192 135 133 150 111 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.9 28.4 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 130 128 126 126 126 127 131 136 143 146 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 130 126 125 124 124 126 130 136 143 147 148 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 54 55 53 50 45 42 40 39 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 43 31 17 11 9 1 12 7 9 1 11 2 200 MB DIV -21 -33 -37 -41 -45 -29 -33 -25 -7 0 -14 -12 -32 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -5 -8 -11 -9 -3 0 -3 -5 0 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 1350 1475 1603 1737 1872 1835 1607 1360 1136 947 764 659 598 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.4 13.1 12.5 11.9 11.5 11.1 11.1 11.1 LONG(DEG W) 29.6 30.9 32.2 33.5 34.8 37.3 39.8 42.3 44.7 47.0 49.3 51.5 53.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 7 11 24 22 32 30 31 25 43 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 19. 24. 30. 36. 42. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 08/07/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -35.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 08/07/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)