* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 08/07/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 35 38 41 43 45 48 51 55 58 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 35 38 41 43 45 48 51 55 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 44 48 51 56 62 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 17 15 12 10 15 13 13 10 12 14 17 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 3 2 4 1 2 2 1 0 -4 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 85 83 101 97 114 128 141 136 146 125 113 123 134 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 133 132 130 126 124 127 127 127 130 133 136 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 133 132 129 124 121 124 124 125 128 131 134 140 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 59 60 61 56 57 52 51 46 44 45 45 41 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 48 35 25 14 4 9 10 16 13 17 9 13 200 MB DIV -24 -17 -35 -41 -43 -32 -38 -45 -31 -24 -18 -12 -24 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -8 -10 -9 -8 -3 2 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1152 1269 1390 1517 1646 1891 1804 1596 1355 1144 970 857 743 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.1 12.3 11.3 10.6 10.1 10.1 10.1 LONG(DEG W) 27.7 29.0 30.2 31.5 32.7 35.0 37.2 39.3 41.3 43.2 44.9 46.5 48.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 3 3 5 16 25 13 21 25 31 29 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 23. 26. 30. 33. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 08/07/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -32.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 08/07/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)