* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 05/14/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 42 42 41 39 38 36 33 26 20 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 42 42 41 39 38 36 33 26 20 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 40 40 39 39 40 42 45 47 48 47 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 37 44 47 43 43 37 37 31 30 33 47 58 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 -3 -8 SHEAR DIR 275 269 268 253 247 242 237 238 246 249 247 245 246 SST (C) 20.1 20.1 19.8 19.4 18.9 17.7 16.6 16.0 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 78 80 80 80 77 73 70 67 66 66 66 67 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 71 74 74 74 71 68 65 63 61 62 62 63 64 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.6 -55.7 -55.3 -55.6 -55.0 -55.1 -54.9 -55.3 -55.2 -55.5 -54.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 38 37 34 35 37 44 49 51 55 52 47 46 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 115 145 146 152 145 131 117 109 81 60 30 34 55 200 MB DIV -15 -22 -1 22 27 19 25 22 22 -4 9 13 12 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -8 -1 -3 3 3 -4 -16 -28 -24 -17 -53 LAND (KM) 2016 1883 1750 1654 1565 1488 1400 1353 1285 1246 1198 1155 1092 LAT (DEG N) 33.3 33.2 33.1 34.1 35.1 37.3 39.0 40.3 40.9 40.6 40.0 39.5 38.6 LONG(DEG W) 33.6 32.1 30.6 28.9 27.2 26.1 25.4 25.0 24.4 23.8 23.1 22.6 21.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 13 14 17 14 11 8 5 2 3 3 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -9. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -3. -10. -15. -19. -23. -28. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 17. 20. 24. 27. 28. 26. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 05/14/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.7/ -1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 05/14/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED