* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 05/13/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 42 42 40 37 34 31 28 23 23 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 42 42 40 37 34 31 28 23 23 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 42 42 44 44 44 43 44 46 50 54 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 28 35 40 46 39 45 44 42 40 44 44 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 1 0 -1 0 0 3 1 2 4 5 8 SHEAR DIR 274 274 272 266 259 250 246 247 249 258 257 238 227 SST (C) 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.9 20.2 19.8 18.7 17.1 16.0 15.4 14.8 14.0 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 75 75 75 76 79 81 77 73 70 69 71 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 68 67 68 69 72 75 72 68 65 65 68 70 70 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -55.3 -55.8 -56.0 -56.4 -55.9 -55.7 -55.2 -55.5 -54.8 -54.0 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 45 45 41 38 36 32 36 43 48 55 42 45 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 6 5 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 94 98 90 109 99 120 137 110 97 78 86 105 156 200 MB DIV -3 -15 -2 -10 -15 10 14 30 26 25 4 28 38 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -6 -3 -6 0 -8 -13 -23 -48 -74 -75 -61 LAND (KM) 2067 2082 2097 2067 2037 1677 1484 1358 1267 1152 884 314 95 LAT (DEG N) 34.7 34.5 34.2 33.7 33.2 32.8 35.1 37.7 39.9 41.3 41.6 42.2 44.5 LONG(DEG W) 33.5 33.8 34.1 34.0 33.9 29.9 26.2 24.7 23.9 22.9 19.7 12.8 6.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 9 17 16 13 10 9 19 26 27 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 819 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -3. -10. -16. -21. -25. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 23. 26. 27. 25. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 05/13/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 05/13/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED