* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 05/12/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 52 54 53 50 44 42 39 35 29 23 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 52 54 53 50 44 42 39 35 29 23 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 52 53 52 50 49 49 49 50 51 51 51 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 23 18 22 29 38 44 30 33 34 39 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 -4 -4 -2 -2 0 0 2 1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 233 246 260 256 265 269 259 248 244 224 235 246 257 SST (C) 19.7 19.5 19.3 19.1 18.9 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.4 18.7 17.2 16.1 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 77 76 75 74 73 72 73 76 77 77 74 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 70 69 68 68 66 65 66 69 71 72 70 68 67 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -53.8 -54.4 -55.2 -55.4 -55.4 -55.2 -55.7 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 49 49 52 51 49 47 46 40 41 39 43 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 13 14 12 10 8 7 7 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 148 131 120 117 114 113 113 109 121 127 119 110 101 200 MB DIV -12 3 0 4 -3 9 -27 0 -8 11 19 27 25 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 2 -1 -5 -6 -6 -3 3 -14 -43 -58 LAND (KM) 1759 1789 1821 1870 1916 1992 2004 1902 1706 1498 1224 898 559 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 34.2 34.8 35.4 35.9 36.1 35.5 34.6 34.3 35.2 37.1 39.0 40.3 LONG(DEG W) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.8 31.0 31.8 32.3 31.6 29.4 26.3 23.0 19.6 15.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 4 3 4 7 11 15 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -14. -13. -13. -13. -13. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -4. -9. -13. -15. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 18. 19. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -17. -21. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 5. -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. -22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 05/12/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 05/12/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED