* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 05/12/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 36 35 32 26 22 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 36 35 32 26 22 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 33 34 36 38 40 40 39 39 39 40 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 22 21 18 22 32 43 46 40 38 40 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -1 -2 0 2 1 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 237 237 245 255 256 269 267 263 250 230 238 253 265 SST (C) 20.1 19.8 19.5 19.3 19.0 18.7 18.8 19.0 19.1 18.9 18.5 17.6 16.8 POT. INT. (KT) 78 78 77 76 74 72 72 72 73 75 75 73 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 70 71 70 69 68 66 65 65 66 68 69 67 67 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -54.7 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 40 42 47 50 54 52 51 49 50 47 47 46 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 7 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 166 147 139 126 123 119 109 99 95 78 75 56 43 200 MB DIV 10 -5 8 9 2 -20 -14 -4 -11 0 11 8 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 3 4 0 -2 -4 -3 2 -7 -17 -27 LAND (KM) 1714 1711 1710 1769 1828 1938 2021 2056 2020 1899 1740 1527 1300 LAT (DEG N) 32.1 33.0 33.9 34.7 35.4 36.2 36.2 35.9 35.5 35.7 36.6 37.5 38.0 LONG(DEG W) 30.7 30.2 29.7 30.0 30.2 31.1 32.1 32.7 32.5 30.9 28.8 26.6 24.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 9 8 6 4 3 2 4 8 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 7. 1. -6. -12. -16. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 13. 15. 15. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -21. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 05/12/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 05/12/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED