* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 09/10/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 43 54 63 71 78 80 80 81 83 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 43 54 63 71 78 80 80 81 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 35 44 53 61 65 67 68 69 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 3 7 14 10 21 19 16 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 5 0 -2 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 42 57 66 35 41 196 254 250 246 230 205 210 206 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.8 27.2 27.8 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 130 128 125 124 123 123 127 135 143 149 154 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 125 123 120 118 117 117 119 125 131 134 137 134 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.5 -52.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 61 62 62 56 55 52 52 50 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 16 18 20 21 23 23 25 28 850 MB ENV VOR 80 78 66 68 69 62 45 44 28 2 -9 -16 -3 200 MB DIV 53 57 56 53 79 54 27 45 53 -1 43 15 73 700-850 TADV -1 1 1 2 1 6 8 13 11 20 18 15 9 LAND (KM) 1762 1842 1924 2013 2009 1974 1958 1955 2009 2038 1922 1875 1901 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.1 15.6 17.0 18.5 20.0 21.6 23.2 24.9 26.6 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 33.8 34.6 35.4 36.3 37.1 38.9 41.0 43.1 45.1 46.8 48.5 49.8 50.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 10 10 10 12 13 12 12 12 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 7 4 4 8 9 3 8 20 32 37 34 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 29. 38. 46. 53. 55. 55. 56. 58. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 09/10/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 09/10/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED