* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 09/08/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 55 62 73 76 79 77 76 75 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 43 55 62 73 76 79 77 76 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 32 34 40 46 55 62 67 67 67 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 17 16 13 10 2 5 9 16 19 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 3 2 6 3 3 -2 -4 -4 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 72 75 74 76 78 103 118 199 208 233 240 256 254 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.2 26.9 26.0 25.8 25.8 26.1 26.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 129 130 128 128 125 115 114 114 116 123 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 129 130 127 126 122 112 108 108 109 116 124 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 73 71 70 65 62 55 53 51 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 15 16 19 18 21 20 22 21 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 127 126 119 103 95 79 68 80 79 74 55 51 48 200 MB DIV 85 65 55 72 89 65 49 51 40 -1 -1 2 1 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 0 0 2 2 8 8 8 9 8 7 LAND (KM) 381 381 411 475 565 721 946 1240 1559 1821 2088 2290 2184 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.8 10.4 11.2 12.0 13.7 15.4 16.9 18.2 19.5 20.6 21.6 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 18.5 19.3 20.1 21.1 22.0 24.1 26.3 28.9 31.7 34.4 37.1 40.0 42.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 14 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 4 3 3 3 0 1 7 16 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 5. 8. 7. 9. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 30. 37. 48. 51. 54. 52. 51. 50. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 09/08/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 09/08/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)