* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 06/30/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 47 54 62 70 74 75 72 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 47 54 62 70 70 69 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 42 48 55 56 57 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 11 14 6 10 10 7 12 17 15 28 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -5 -3 -3 0 -5 0 -3 -5 -2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 338 325 334 3 29 354 349 335 315 286 268 233 232 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.3 24.2 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 133 134 135 135 131 129 128 119 102 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 110 109 110 110 113 113 109 108 110 103 90 77 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.1 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -53.8 -54.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 9 13 11 15 10 12 5 6 1 700-500 MB RH 59 60 57 53 53 52 52 53 51 50 45 42 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 8 10 10 12 12 14 17 20 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -25 -19 -35 -44 -39 -44 -36 -16 -6 -2 -17 -1 200 MB DIV -5 -5 -12 6 14 -3 4 28 19 44 26 34 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 3 -1 14 0 -3 -27 LAND (KM) 205 178 147 122 97 87 117 143 108 54 0 185 197 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 2 1 4 6 5 7 11 15 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 31 31 29 25 24 22 16 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 22. 29. 37. 45. 49. 50. 47. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 06/30/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912014 INVEST 06/30/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 06/30/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)