* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912013 09/08/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 40 54 70 84 94 99 98 93 87 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 40 54 70 84 94 99 98 93 87 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 40 52 68 80 81 75 70 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 13 10 6 7 4 3 11 10 10 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 -1 -1 -5 -3 -5 -4 0 3 5 SHEAR DIR 49 46 52 51 46 50 31 281 188 232 228 274 266 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.4 26.6 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 142 143 141 140 137 129 119 113 110 110 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 139 142 139 135 130 122 111 103 100 99 100 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.3 -53.7 -52.8 -53.5 -52.5 -53.2 -51.9 -52.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 79 81 81 81 81 81 77 73 73 71 68 58 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 15 16 19 23 25 28 31 32 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 68 71 80 95 108 115 114 105 129 120 120 111 91 200 MB DIV 30 22 33 49 81 87 141 108 121 97 108 43 19 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 5 8 13 11 7 LAND (KM) 353 422 499 619 742 952 1085 1206 1348 1435 1457 1565 1709 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 12 11 9 8 9 9 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 10 15 14 9 5 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 9. 13. 15. 14. 11. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 15. 29. 45. 59. 69. 74. 73. 68. 62. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 INVEST 09/08/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 INVEST 09/08/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)