* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912013 09/08/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 52 65 77 90 102 106 112 110 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 43 52 65 77 90 102 106 112 110 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 48 60 73 86 95 96 95 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 7 8 9 11 5 5 1 1 2 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 0 0 1 -1 0 -4 -2 -2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 87 67 50 50 32 24 14 14 2 71 224 333 253 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 144 144 143 138 135 130 126 123 120 121 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 140 141 140 135 130 125 119 113 108 112 109 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 78 79 73 73 69 68 66 70 69 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 13 14 14 16 18 20 23 26 29 30 850 MB ENV VOR 69 68 68 71 84 106 130 138 141 141 147 129 110 200 MB DIV 17 16 15 36 47 43 57 57 76 85 115 113 69 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 1 0 1 -2 0 1 3 5 LAND (KM) 86 158 228 337 451 709 979 1236 1450 1621 1664 1615 1511 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.6 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.6 15.5 15.6 16.4 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 17.6 18.6 19.5 20.6 21.7 24.1 26.6 29.0 31.0 32.6 33.0 32.5 31.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 9 5 2 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 8 8 9 10 9 5 3 3 3 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 13. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 27. 40. 52. 65. 77. 81. 87. 85. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 INVEST 09/08/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 INVEST 09/08/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)