* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912013 09/07/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 30 35 47 60 74 87 96 103 107 107 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 30 35 47 60 74 87 96 103 107 107 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 27 34 45 58 73 87 93 93 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 5 7 6 9 7 6 5 8 2 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -2 -1 1 -1 -2 0 -7 -1 -3 5 SHEAR DIR 81 93 65 58 66 20 42 36 32 16 276 293 209 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 142 144 144 140 137 135 130 127 124 122 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 136 139 141 140 136 133 130 123 117 113 114 108 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -53.3 -52.5 -53.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 77 80 79 77 77 75 73 70 70 68 69 70 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 14 15 17 20 21 24 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR 69 77 77 75 80 99 123 127 142 138 145 125 110 200 MB DIV 11 23 22 21 40 56 64 55 62 66 108 97 151 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 3 2 9 LAND (KM) 21 108 165 260 367 601 859 1095 1288 1428 1461 1406 1342 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.1 15.6 16.7 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 17.0 17.9 18.8 19.9 20.9 23.1 25.5 27.7 29.5 30.8 31.1 30.5 29.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 8 4 4 9 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 11 8 9 8 13 9 6 5 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 443 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 27. 40. 54. 67. 76. 83. 87. 87. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 INVEST 09/07/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 INVEST 09/07/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED