* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912013 09/07/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 35 47 59 73 86 96 104 107 108 V (KT) LAND 20 25 28 32 38 50 62 76 88 98 107 109 110 V (KT) LGE mod 20 22 26 29 32 40 52 66 81 93 96 94 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 9 6 7 9 9 5 7 4 4 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 0 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -4 -3 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 67 77 88 68 62 42 30 23 31 333 18 227 228 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 138 139 141 144 143 138 137 133 127 123 118 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 135 136 140 139 134 131 126 118 112 109 105 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 78 78 80 80 79 79 74 74 70 69 68 66 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 14 14 16 18 20 23 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR 59 69 77 77 74 88 112 127 132 134 137 141 121 200 MB DIV 8 9 24 23 30 47 55 55 59 65 81 99 123 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 3 8 LAND (KM) -86 10 107 181 247 453 687 913 1128 1279 1379 1415 1408 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.7 16.2 17.3 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 16.0 16.9 17.8 18.7 19.6 21.7 23.9 26.0 28.0 29.4 30.3 30.5 30.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 8 6 5 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 2 10 12 10 10 11 14 8 5 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 15. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 27. 39. 53. 66. 76. 84. 87. 88. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 INVEST 09/07/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 INVEST 09/07/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)