* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL912013 08/03/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 41 47 47 44 45 44 42 41 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 41 47 47 44 45 44 42 41 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 32 33 33 32 33 34 35 35 35 37 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 22 28 35 38 16 28 36 33 24 15 30 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 -1 -5 3 4 8 7 0 -1 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 6 358 6 2 357 316 215 197 207 205 236 237 N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.6 28.1 28.0 27.4 23.9 20.3 18.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 132 134 136 136 143 141 133 101 83 77 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 113 114 116 120 125 131 126 117 89 76 72 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.7 -54.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 12 9 9 7 7 6 5 3 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 55 55 54 52 45 40 40 40 39 37 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 8 11 10 8 9 9 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -71 -53 -52 -37 10 49 41 -1 -45 -77 -43 N/A 200 MB DIV 7 -15 -15 -13 -3 40 65 69 49 34 17 -3 N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 2 3 -4 9 -24 7 10 -10 -15 -28 N/A LAND (KM) 105 181 274 342 335 397 760 743 741 591 608 841 N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 11 15 23 24 23 22 21 20 20 N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 28 30 22 15 9 20 21 7 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 20. 20. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. -2. -7. -11. -12. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 2. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 17. 18. 14. 15. 14. 12. 11. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 DORIAN 08/03/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912013 DORIAN 08/03/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 DORIAN 08/03/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED