* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL912013 08/03/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 40 39 37 36 34 33 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 40 39 37 36 34 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 28 29 30 30 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 21 19 28 34 30 17 33 46 46 52 57 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 5 6 4 -2 0 5 8 0 -2 -6 -4 N/A SHEAR DIR 13 15 356 5 357 337 267 226 214 222 228 224 N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.3 27.6 26.6 24.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 130 132 133 131 134 139 143 134 122 101 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 111 113 114 116 115 117 120 123 114 104 88 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -54.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -54.3 -54.9 -55.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 8 8 6 5 4 4 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 49 50 56 56 56 44 36 35 38 38 44 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -70 -69 -49 -47 -2 19 34 19 -1 -31 -21 N/A 200 MB DIV 5 0 -28 -17 -6 12 25 47 12 39 21 22 N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -5 0 3 5 1 -16 -49 -40 -15 -18 -27 N/A LAND (KM) 80 137 196 292 262 248 423 681 710 648 614 501 N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 11 11 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 27 27 29 24 20 7 11 18 14 8 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 19. 23. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 5. 0. -6. -14. -20. -25. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 14. 12. 11. 9. 8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 DORIAN 08/03/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912013 DORIAN 08/03/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 DORIAN 08/03/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)