* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL912013 08/02/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 45 48 51 52 52 51 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 45 48 51 52 52 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 34 36 39 43 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 9 11 14 17 27 16 20 20 34 39 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 0 3 1 -3 1 2 6 5 1 1 SHEAR DIR 21 21 34 4 11 33 350 323 265 230 214 211 221 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.7 27.5 27.8 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 136 133 130 129 134 132 136 143 143 141 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 126 118 114 112 112 118 117 120 124 123 120 113 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 11 9 9 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 59 58 58 56 52 55 59 57 47 43 43 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -39 -30 -38 -71 -64 -51 5 7 15 1 -14 -10 200 MB DIV 11 -13 -20 -28 -19 -27 3 27 19 33 42 54 30 700-850 TADV 2 0 2 3 -2 7 1 25 -26 -12 -6 -8 -8 LAND (KM) 117 82 60 78 105 225 265 326 608 861 874 881 834 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 7 8 10 14 16 16 16 16 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 50 45 36 31 27 27 19 8 10 22 23 24 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. -1. -5. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 27. 26. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 DORIAN 08/02/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912013 DORIAN 08/02/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 DORIAN 08/02/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)