* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL912013 08/01/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 44 47 46 46 46 49 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 28 34 38 41 41 41 41 43 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 26 32 35 37 38 38 38 38 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 13 15 15 23 20 33 31 25 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 0 2 0 -5 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 22 32 37 35 55 41 51 40 62 71 74 47 66 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 152 154 156 150 144 144 145 146 145 147 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 133 135 136 130 122 122 122 123 122 123 124 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 15 13 13 12 14 700-500 MB RH 60 61 58 57 57 47 46 45 47 44 48 46 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 2 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -31 -40 -45 -35 -70 -71 -114 -92 -96 -100 -123 -113 200 MB DIV 1 13 6 -14 -37 -14 -16 -10 -50 -20 -19 -12 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 212 159 83 5 -19 45 96 162 242 283 323 286 263 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.3 25.6 26.3 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 78.4 79.1 79.7 80.4 81.1 82.4 83.5 84.3 85.2 86.0 86.9 87.6 88.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 24 40 52 66 46 34 21 16 18 21 23 27 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 5. 1. -3. -6. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 22. 21. 21. 21. 24. 24. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 DORIAN 08/01/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912013 DORIAN 08/01/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 DORIAN 08/01/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)