* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL912013 07/30/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 37 43 48 53 58 61 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 37 43 48 53 58 61 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 35 41 48 55 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 15 14 18 18 17 15 14 13 19 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 3 3 0 -2 -4 -2 -4 -3 -2 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 269 304 319 307 295 338 354 11 1 22 12 32 37 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.6 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 136 138 140 144 150 153 157 160 155 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 125 124 125 128 129 133 135 137 140 133 127 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 42 43 45 47 47 51 52 55 58 56 50 50 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -67 -62 -63 -69 -46 -65 -47 -53 -48 -63 -73 -102 200 MB DIV 9 0 -1 -14 -20 -12 -16 0 8 -33 -25 -36 -1 700-850 TADV 4 -5 -7 -2 1 0 0 1 1 2 0 2 1 LAND (KM) 195 204 222 211 189 110 67 49 74 110 60 104 134 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.6 21.8 21.8 21.8 22.0 22.3 22.7 23.4 24.2 24.8 25.6 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 69.4 70.5 71.6 72.6 73.5 75.5 77.2 78.6 79.6 80.6 81.6 82.7 83.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 9 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 53 49 43 39 31 25 39 32 46 71 67 27 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 18. 23. 28. 33. 36. 37. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 DORIAN 07/30/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912013 DORIAN 07/30/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 DORIAN 07/30/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED