* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL912013 07/29/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 42 47 53 58 64 68 71 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 42 47 53 58 64 68 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 37 43 51 60 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 14 17 14 22 17 14 13 12 12 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 8 0 -1 1 -2 -1 -5 -3 -4 -3 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 233 251 274 301 313 307 333 327 4 350 6 358 3 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 136 137 136 138 140 143 149 153 156 158 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 127 125 125 124 125 127 128 132 135 136 136 132 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 40 41 42 43 45 45 48 48 52 54 55 52 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -60 -67 -70 -63 -70 -53 -64 -48 -46 -51 -63 -53 200 MB DIV 27 22 7 -2 8 -32 -9 -13 3 10 -16 -6 -29 700-850 TADV -9 -1 2 -3 -3 0 0 0 1 1 3 1 1 LAND (KM) 277 250 212 217 233 227 139 102 85 99 95 0 22 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.0 22.2 22.5 23.0 23.6 24.4 25.1 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 66.8 68.0 69.2 70.3 71.3 73.2 75.2 76.9 78.4 79.5 80.4 81.1 81.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 6 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 34 45 47 44 33 26 41 47 50 71 16 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 22. 28. 33. 39. 43. 46. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 DORIAN 07/29/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912013 DORIAN 07/29/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 DORIAN 07/29/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED