* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL912013 07/29/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 37 41 44 47 53 57 59 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 37 41 44 47 40 39 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 23 24 25 27 30 32 30 32 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 16 18 20 16 20 21 26 20 16 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 -6 -4 -4 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 214 234 250 251 268 324 320 2 356 360 342 19 23 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 133 134 134 134 133 134 139 144 144 139 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 126 125 127 126 124 122 122 124 126 125 119 114 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 38 39 39 41 40 44 46 50 55 58 56 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -58 -63 -64 -75 -75 -81 -64 -72 -54 -55 -49 -76 200 MB DIV 4 -5 -3 9 12 6 -32 7 3 14 -9 -69 -14 700-850 TADV 2 -6 -8 -4 0 -5 0 -1 1 1 1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 339 288 300 279 247 279 230 173 146 71 -14 4 31 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 14 14 14 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 18 29 42 37 24 49 57 68 38 3 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 12. 16. 19. 22. 28. 32. 34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 DORIAN 07/29/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912013 DORIAN 07/29/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 DORIAN 07/29/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)