* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912013 06/05/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 45 44 47 41 39 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 45 39 41 35 33 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 41 41 36 35 33 31 27 25 23 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 28 31 25 29 28 35 48 59 84 82 53 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 6 6 0 4 -1 3 -7 -5 6 10 SHEAR DIR 253 234 239 233 229 231 231 241 244 257 263 271 259 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.5 25.7 25.0 25.0 24.4 17.6 10.5 7.0 5.0 10.1 14.2 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 119 112 106 108 105 78 71 70 69 70 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 110 106 100 96 99 97 75 69 69 68 68 69 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -51.9 -50.7 -48.8 -47.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 66 69 75 71 68 65 62 49 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 12 15 14 18 17 12 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 22 19 2 17 63 28 67 79 113 56 51 76 91 200 MB DIV 93 98 102 84 83 75 112 60 52 22 -5 -9 -1 700-850 TADV 13 12 16 28 38 33 54 45 110 85 -21 -28 -30 LAND (KM) 398 366 284 167 80 71 18 126 190 14 65 664 1213 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 11 12 14 19 24 27 29 31 30 26 25 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -13. -23. -32. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -2. 1. 0. 3. 2. -3. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 9. 12. 6. 4. -10. -27. -43. -55. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 INVEST 06/05/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 INVEST 06/05/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED