* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912013 06/04/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 34 34 30 27 23 21 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 34 34 30 27 23 19 24 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 25 24 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 20 20 15 20 18 28 27 40 44 51 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 6 3 0 6 -1 1 4 3 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 296 270 275 287 269 265 262 251 238 227 220 238 250 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 26.7 25.3 23.4 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 122 121 120 119 120 123 125 122 110 97 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 106 104 102 101 103 108 111 111 99 88 90 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 10 10 12 12 12 9 10 6 7 700-500 MB RH 59 56 53 47 46 43 39 42 47 48 48 46 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 11 13 13 11 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 25 15 13 38 34 36 5 9 -23 -31 -74 -73 200 MB DIV 48 65 55 33 61 53 12 18 15 34 29 4 -23 700-850 TADV 5 -4 -3 3 1 -3 -2 2 0 10 9 -2 18 LAND (KM) 204 245 287 307 328 320 293 316 416 293 -3 -82 -47 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.6 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.0 23.8 24.2 25.4 27.4 29.9 32.3 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 88.8 89.2 89.5 89.9 90.2 90.3 90.1 89.4 88.6 87.0 84.7 81.8 78.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 2 1 2 5 10 14 16 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 9 25 9 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -4. -9. -14. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 5. 2. -2. -4. -8. -11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 INVEST 06/04/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 INVEST 06/04/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED