* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912013 06/03/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 29 29 27 26 23 21 18 16 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 29 29 27 26 23 21 18 16 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 22 22 21 21 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 32 28 21 23 23 26 21 36 31 34 35 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 2 3 2 4 2 4 4 4 4 SHEAR DIR 285 282 287 271 261 267 240 249 227 232 234 230 224 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.8 26.8 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 126 125 123 121 120 118 116 114 119 122 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 113 110 109 106 104 102 99 98 96 103 108 98 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 7 9 7 9 9 11 9 11 700-500 MB RH 74 72 70 67 63 56 52 49 45 42 41 44 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 4 -6 21 27 11 35 24 53 42 57 35 36 200 MB DIV 62 44 47 57 67 47 55 54 66 40 45 9 37 700-850 TADV 6 2 1 3 0 3 -5 0 -6 0 -2 3 1 LAND (KM) 59 127 197 246 296 359 416 385 353 371 371 398 139 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.7 23.3 23.8 24.2 24.8 25.6 25.8 26.0 25.8 25.9 26.3 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 86.8 87.0 87.1 87.2 87.2 87.5 87.8 88.1 88.5 88.7 88.2 86.7 84.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 5 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 11 12 14 18 24 20 14 17 18 16 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -3. -8. -14. -17. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 INVEST 06/03/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 INVEST 06/03/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED