* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 12/02/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 49 57 69 73 67 63 58 51 43 33 V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 49 57 69 73 67 63 58 51 43 33 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 37 37 37 38 41 47 51 51 49 46 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 34 45 54 67 51 43 39 54 54 57 49 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 12 14 10 5 0 1 -3 0 -6 1 2 SHEAR DIR 268 260 254 243 236 223 229 255 279 279 284 295 303 SST (C) 22.7 22.1 21.3 20.5 20.0 19.1 17.7 16.6 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.3 18.1 POT. INT. (KT) 91 88 85 83 81 79 76 74 74 73 73 72 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 81 80 78 76 75 73 71 70 70 69 68 67 67 200 MB T (C) -60.1 -60.7 -61.2 -61.5 -61.8 -61.9 -61.0 -61.3 -61.5 -62.2 -62.4 -62.0 -61.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 59 62 59 50 46 49 49 52 53 47 46 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 23 26 32 35 33 27 23 20 15 11 6 850 MB ENV VOR 99 114 125 126 130 150 147 137 139 88 29 -2 -23 200 MB DIV 66 90 87 66 78 91 60 39 -6 -17 -51 -36 -74 700-850 TADV 16 31 28 45 63 0 -14 -23 -12 -4 -1 11 2 LAND (KM) 1937 1835 1738 1651 1577 1545 1715 1532 1101 723 395 106 49 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 32.4 33.6 35.1 36.5 39.2 41.3 42.2 42.1 41.6 40.8 39.6 38.3 LONG(DEG W) 43.1 42.5 41.9 40.9 39.9 37.1 33.0 27.8 22.5 17.7 13.5 10.3 9.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 15 17 17 18 19 19 19 17 15 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -2. -12. -21. -29. -34. -38. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 31. 37. 43. 50. 55. 57. 60. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -17. -21. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 10. 4. 1. -3. -7. -11. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 22. 34. 38. 32. 28. 23. 16. 8. -2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 12/02/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 12/02/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)