* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 12/02/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 52 63 74 72 71 67 62 51 42 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 52 63 74 72 71 67 62 51 42 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 37 37 37 38 40 46 53 56 54 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 30 44 48 51 52 45 43 40 57 59 62 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 11 13 10 15 9 1 0 -1 -5 0 -11 0 SHEAR DIR 257 263 260 260 241 226 217 236 246 256 261 270 289 SST (C) 23.0 22.6 22.2 21.4 20.6 19.3 17.4 16.2 16.0 16.3 17.4 18.2 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 92 89 88 86 84 81 76 72 71 72 75 76 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 79 79 79 78 76 72 67 66 68 70 71 73 200 MB T (C) -59.9 -60.6 -60.6 -61.3 -61.6 -62.5 -62.8 -62.2 -61.7 -62.3 -62.5 -62.0 -61.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 62 64 66 61 57 52 51 43 35 38 27 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 19 21 24 29 32 28 24 20 17 11 6 850 MB ENV VOR 92 99 119 126 125 111 95 99 124 110 56 -4 -44 200 MB DIV 8 74 77 71 61 114 121 63 26 -35 -56 -25 -58 700-850 TADV 8 20 30 58 63 36 -39 -36 -32 -15 -16 -18 -5 LAND (KM) 2008 1927 1847 1767 1699 1636 1712 1583 1318 1104 877 625 473 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.3 32.1 33.4 34.7 38.2 41.8 44.0 44.1 42.4 40.2 38.0 35.7 LONG(DEG W) 43.1 43.0 42.8 41.7 40.6 36.8 32.7 28.7 25.4 22.6 19.3 16.3 13.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 12 16 20 23 21 14 12 15 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 12 CX,CY: -2/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -11. -18. -25. -32. -38. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 11. 15. 24. 32. 39. 46. 52. 57. 59. 62. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -21. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 9. 5. 1. -3. -8. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 28. 39. 37. 36. 32. 27. 16. 7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 12/02/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 12/02/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)