* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 12/01/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 42 52 62 68 75 79 76 70 62 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 42 52 62 68 75 79 76 70 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 35 37 41 46 51 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 39 31 28 26 26 34 41 54 49 44 43 54 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 2 4 5 6 10 16 10 1 0 3 -11 -4 SHEAR DIR 276 270 276 279 281 262 239 231 220 237 253 258 258 SST (C) 24.8 24.5 24.2 23.8 23.4 22.2 20.5 19.0 16.9 15.3 14.2 14.7 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 101 100 98 96 94 90 84 81 76 71 66 67 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 88 87 85 84 82 78 76 72 68 63 63 64 200 MB T (C) -58.6 -58.4 -59.2 -58.9 -59.2 -60.1 -61.8 -62.6 -63.3 -63.6 -63.2 -62.5 -63.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 60 61 60 52 52 63 61 53 45 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 17 18 19 23 26 30 32 33 27 24 19 850 MB ENV VOR 66 76 83 92 111 115 120 104 93 81 103 82 25 200 MB DIV 14 35 42 26 27 74 88 127 129 98 50 -7 -74 700-850 TADV 5 9 9 12 13 26 60 74 -25 -41 -13 -9 -3 LAND (KM) 2495 2425 2356 2269 2184 1980 1789 1703 1800 1425 1157 1092 1039 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.7 27.4 28.3 29.1 31.5 34.6 38.4 42.3 45.6 47.1 46.5 45.0 LONG(DEG W) 42.3 42.2 42.1 42.1 42.0 41.1 39.1 35.6 31.2 27.1 24.4 22.7 21.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 10 15 20 25 24 17 8 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 7. 10. 12. 13. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 2. -6. -14. -21. -25. -29. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 25. 31. 39. 46. 53. 55. 59. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -19. -22. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 16. 18. 18. 12. 8. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 17. 27. 37. 43. 50. 54. 51. 45. 37. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 12/01/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 12/01/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)