* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 09/10/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 43 56 68 79 87 93 96 95 95 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 43 56 68 79 87 93 96 95 95 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 35 44 55 67 78 87 90 90 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 5 3 2 8 3 6 8 12 4 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 3 0 -6 0 0 4 6 9 5 2 SHEAR DIR 95 78 75 117 185 314 299 273 268 305 304 287 268 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 125 126 128 130 132 134 138 140 143 147 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 126 123 123 125 126 126 127 130 129 129 130 129 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 9 11 10 11 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 65 66 63 64 61 60 65 61 60 61 62 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 12 13 15 15 16 18 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 120 114 114 118 120 114 84 72 42 18 17 38 58 200 MB DIV 72 67 64 61 47 41 52 23 26 45 75 50 56 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -3 1 3 2 -1 -1 1 6 11 18 19 LAND (KM) 1729 1894 2061 1976 1900 1780 1712 1661 1572 1432 1340 1352 1468 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.7 18.7 19.5 20.7 22.2 23.8 25.6 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 33.6 35.2 36.7 38.2 39.7 42.6 45.3 48.1 50.5 52.6 54.2 55.2 55.3 STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 19 21 17 18 28 34 55 50 44 48 34 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 292 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 4. 6. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 31. 43. 54. 62. 68. 71. 70. 70. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 09/10/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 09/10/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)