* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 09/08/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 55 62 66 68 68 68 66 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 55 62 66 68 68 68 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 42 49 56 61 63 64 64 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 6 6 7 3 9 14 21 22 25 35 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 7 6 2 5 -1 -1 -3 0 -2 -2 10 SHEAR DIR 42 49 41 17 8 318 280 262 269 277 310 354 10 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.5 28.0 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 126 127 126 122 122 124 127 131 137 143 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 131 127 128 126 122 120 119 119 121 125 128 125 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 68 62 61 61 56 55 55 51 51 48 52 60 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 78 75 69 65 68 67 67 36 12 -33 -59 -52 -50 200 MB DIV 40 25 17 1 12 25 32 8 25 14 21 38 22 700-850 TADV -1 1 3 4 4 8 3 2 0 3 7 -3 1 LAND (KM) 377 569 766 986 1207 1650 2072 2186 2134 2151 2042 2095 1875 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.8 18.1 19.4 20.7 22.0 23.5 25.3 27.8 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 21.0 22.8 24.6 26.6 28.6 32.6 36.8 40.4 43.3 45.7 47.4 48.0 47.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 19 20 20 21 19 17 14 13 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 14 16 10 13 15 20 32 28 33 39 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 8. 6. 4. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 30. 37. 41. 43. 43. 43. 41. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 09/08/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 09/08/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED